RetireOdds

Deterministic planning in a probabilistic world

RetireOdds is a personal wealth and retirement planning app built by Mayur Kamat, available currently as an invite-only beta. Unlike probabilistic tools that show you a range of outcomes, RetireOdds takes a deterministic approach: it builds a detailed year-by-year ledger of your retirement based on your real financial picture, then models probability separately through 1,000-path Monte Carlo simulation. The platform brings your net worth, portfolio, spending, taxes, healthcare costs, liabilities, and illiquid assets into one view. The core mechanic is file-based: you upload CSV exports from your brokerages instead of connecting them live. You own the data, you control it, and you can export or delete it at any time. No OAuth, no bank credentials, no persistent connection to your financial institutions.

CSV uploads, no bank linking, no refresh wait

The income entry process here is deliberately manual. RetireOdds does not sync to banks or brokerages. Instead, you download a CSV export from Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, or E*Trade and upload it to the platform. The site states clearly that you do not need a bank linking requirement and that it never connects to your bank or brokerage and never asks for OAuth or bank credentials. The onboarding wizard walks you through the essential facts: your household and horizon (ages, residence, retirement timing, planning horizon), annual employment income and a monthly spending baseline, portfolio balances broken into taxable, tax-deferred, and Roth accounts, and your Social Security timing and expected retirement country. Once you have uploaded your CSV, every change you make instantly recalculates your chance of success. There is no waiting for a refresh. The platform does not keep a persistent copy of your financial institution credentials. Your data is stored privately and you can export or delete it at any time from Settings & Security.

Year-by-year ledger with tax and cash-flow detail

The budgeting engine here is the Ledger: a read-only, deterministic record of how your plan becomes year-by-year numbers. It shows how much your portfolio needs to provide each year, running through your retirement on a fixed path. The Ledger does not calculate anything itself; it formats the simulation engine's output. It is the single source of truth behind every other view. You can run a "Test assumptions" preview to model one what-if at a time: change your withdrawal strategy (constant dollar, Percent of Portfolio, Dynamic SWR, Guyton-style guardrails, or the 95% Rule), model a different country to reprice cost of living and tax, lower your expenses temporarily, add a one-time big expense in a chosen year, model a Roth conversion at a chosen age, retire earlier or later, or change your assumed portfolio return. Each lever recalculates the entire Ledger so you see every affected cell, not just a single number. The site describes the Ledger as the platform's core: you inspect the working behind each balance and explore tax planning, Roth conversion timing, and the tax implications of living abroad. Tax modeling includes taxable balances, tax-deferred accounts, Roth accounts, Social Security taxability depending on your other income, capital gains stratified by bracket, and the order you draw from accounts (taxable vs. tax-deferred vs. Roth). Required minimum distributions are tracked in the tax planning view, including how a Roth conversion ladder reduces them. Healthcare costs are modeled as a separate line item. Liabilities (mortgages and other debt) are tracked and paid down on the schedule you set.

The Chance of Success view models uncertainty over the ledger

Once you have built your deterministic Ledger, RetireOdds runs 1,000-path Monte Carlo simulation over that plan. The site describes this as exploring uncertainty separately: your deterministic path is not a guaranteed future, and changing a decision can help or hurt the modeled outcome. The Chance view shows the Monte Carlo results as a net-worth projection fan chart showing the median path (P50) and the band between the 10th and 90th percentiles (P10–P90), all in today's dollars inflation-adjusted. The engine uses a fixed seed for repeatability: identical inputs give identical results. The percentage reported is a sampling estimate rather than a guarantee, not a precise forecast. Where failed simulations happen, you can open "Where this plan fails" to see the age at which paths run out of money, grouped by first-shortfall age, with selected actual failing trials shown as examples. The historical market module replays rolling 1928–2024 windows as one of the simulation sources.

Pricing is not stated on the public pages; invite-only beta with one year free for invited members

The site does not publish a price on the public pages. It states that RetireOdds is an invite-only beta, and that "invited members receive one year free." Beyond that, no pricing tier, no annual cost, no plan structure is listed on the Home, Help, About, or Security pages. The Help section mentions a "Free calculator" and describes how to use the app, but the terms under which that free trial or free calculator operates are not spelled out. The platform emphasizes that it is file-based and user-controlled, never connects to your bank or brokerage, and lets you export or delete your data at any time. One promise the site makes is explicit: "Your data is yours. We don't sell it, rent it, or share it with advertisers. You can export everything and walk away at any time, no lock-in." A reader interested in RetireOdds should expect to wait for an invite and should confirm pricing and the structure of the free trial before committing time to the application process.

Who this suits, who it does not

RetireOdds suits the planner who wants to model year-by-year detail and is comfortable uploading CSVs instead of linking accounts live. The deterministic Ledger appeals to someone who wants to understand the exact withdrawal sequence, tax bracket by bracket, and validate that result before making a decision. It is designed for the self-directed planner and the person who wants full control of their data. The FIRE community and anyone modeling a non-US retirement (the app lets you reprice living costs and taxes by country) find value in the ability to model custom scenarios. The founder's background in product design at Binance, N26, Google, Microsoft, Agoda, and Hiya suggests attention to usability and privacy. The platform is not for someone who wants automated account sync and passive monitoring. It is not for someone who just wants a simple success percentage and does not want to understand the ledger underneath. The invite-only beta status means you cannot use it immediately if you decide it suits your needs. You have to apply and wait. For someone who is frustrated with other planners' black-box math and wants to see every row and column, and who is willing to upload data manually in exchange for full privacy and control, this is a genuinely different tool. For someone who wants ease of entry and live sync, this is not the choice.